OddsFirstThe prediction-market terminalHow It Works
How it works

How we see what’s next.

Nine smart-money signals fused into forward-looking trajectory lines — drawn live on every chart you watch.

The Polymarket edge

Polymarket odds move first. The spot price catches up after.

That’s why real-money prediction-market consensus is the largest single weight feeding every OddsFirst trajectory line.

How it works

Three steps. Real-money signal.

01
We watch every Polymarket market 24/7
Hundreds of live prediction markets where traders are betting real cash on real-world outcomes — BTC at $100K, AAPL earnings, election odds, Fed cuts.
02
We catch surges before the spot price reacts
When volume spikes 3x or whales drop $100K+ on one side, our scanner logs it. We measure direction, order-book imbalance, and time pressure.
03
We fuse it with the technicals
Polymarket activity gets blended with 24+ indicators across timeframes. The result: a trajectory line showing where the prediction-market crowd thinks this ticker is headed.
Signal sources

Nine smart-money signals. One trajectory.

Each source is weighted by timeframe. When sources agree, conviction climbs. When they disagree, you see that too.

Polymarket Consensus

Real-money prediction markets. When traders bet thousands on an outcome, the odds move first — the spot price catches up after. The single largest weight in every trajectory line.

Iowa Electronic Markets (1988–2008): prediction markets beat polls every cycle.

Options Put/Call

Aggregated options positioning. When hedge funds load up on calls or puts, the ratio shifts before the chart does — proven order-flow value.

CBOE put/call ratio used as a contrarian indicator since the 1980s.

On-Chain Flow

Active wallet addresses and exchange deposit flows for the underlying asset. Real network activity, not technical chart guessing.

CoinGecko developer data — tracked across hundreds of crypto networks.

Long / Short Ratio

Share of traders positioned long versus short. When retail is 80%+ on one side, fading the crowd often pays.

Direct exchange data — published by Binance, OKX, and Bybit.

Options Implied Volatility

How big a move the options market is pricing in. When IV jumps, a real move is usually being positioned for.

Deribit data — the institutional standard for crypto options pricing.

Social Sentiment

X and Reddit conviction signals. Used to detect regime shifts and downweight stale sentiment readings when social volume spikes.

CoinGecko community data — sampled continuously across major networks.

Fear & Greed Index

Aggregate sentiment 0–100. Below 25 = extreme fear (often a buy). Above 75 = extreme greed (often a sell).

Methodology adapted from CNN Business’s original stock-market index.

Funding Rate

Cost paid between long and short crypto traders. When positive and rising, longs are crowded — a leverage flush is usually next.

Funding mechanism invented by BitMEX in 2016, now standard on every major exchange.

Open Interest

Total active contracts outstanding. Rising OI on green candles confirms real conviction. Rising on red confirms shorts piling in.

Tracked by the CFTC in its weekly reports since 1962.

OddsFirst’s edge is in the integration, not the inputs. We share what we use. The math is proprietary.

Trajectory lines

How to read the chart

Every chart on OddsFirst Pro shows three trajectory lines extending from the current price. They map where the Polymarket crowd thinks the ticker is heading next.

Day Trade TrajectoryHours to 7 days
Built for active traders. Tracks the fastest Polymarket signals — large bets that typically resolve in hours or within the week. The spot price often catches up before the day is out. Best for scalps, intraday entries, and short-hold swings.
Swing Trade Trajectory7 to 90 days
Built for position traders. Tracks Polymarket consensus shifts that play out over days or weeks. The spot price typically catches up over multi-day to multi-week windows. Best for swing positions, breakout setups, and macro-event plays.

When all three lines point the same direction, the read is strong. When they conflict, you see that too — sometimes the most valuable thing on the chart.

What you get

Free vs Pro

Free · forever
$0
  • TTM Squeeze, Anchored VWAP, Ichimoku Cloud — paywalled on most platforms, free here
  • Every ticker we cover — crypto, stocks, ETFs, FX, commodities, indices
  • Full candlestick chart — every timeframe, 5 chart types (Candle, Heikin-Ashi, Line, Area, Bar)
  • 12 popular indicators — MA20/50/200, RSI, MACD, Bollinger, ATR, VWAP, OBV, Pivots, Fibonacci, Parabolic SAR
  • See real-money Polymarket activity on every ticker — volume, bullish vs bearish lean, and confidence at a glance
  • Real-time price updates via WebSocket
THE MOAT
OddsFirst Pro
$24.99/mo
or $250/year — get 2 months free
  • Forward-looking trajectory lines on every ticker — Day Trade and Swing Trade modes
  • Polymarket Conviction Line — our own signal, plotting how confident the prediction-market crowd is on every ticker, live, right below your chart
  • Average any combination of indicators into one clean line — fuse RSI, MACD, MFI, Stoch RSI into a single read. No other platform does this.
  • 18 deeper indicators — Stoch RSI, ADX, MFI, Williams %R, CCI, Awesome Oscillator, CMF, TRIX, Donchian, Keltner, Supertrend, Volume Profile, Volume Divergence, plus auto-divergence detectors on RSI and MACD
  • All smart-money signals — Funding Rate, Open Interest, Long/Short, Options Put/Call, On-Chain Flow, Social Sentiment, Fear & Greed
  • Day Trade trajectory (hours to 7 days) and Swing Trade trajectory (7 to 90 days) — math tuned to your timeframe
Common questions

FAQ

Is this financial advice?
No. OddsFirst is a market-data and visualization tool. Nothing on this site is investment, trading, tax, or legal advice. Trading carries risk. Always do your own research.
Where does the Polymarket data come from?
Polymarket’s public Gamma and CLOB APIs. We pull live odds, volume, and order books in real time — no third-party feeds, no delay layers.
Why does Polymarket lead the spot price?
Real-money prediction markets concentrate informed traders. When someone with conviction puts $100K behind an outcome, the odds move within seconds — long before that conviction shows up on a chart.
Does the free tier expire?
No. Free is free forever. You get every ticker we cover, the full chart, and 12 popular indicators plus 3 normally paywalled on most platforms (TTM Squeeze, Anchored VWAP, Ichimoku). Pro adds the forward-looking trajectory lines, the Polymarket Conviction Line, the indicator averaging tool, and 18 deeper indicators including auto-divergence detectors and Volume Profile.
Can I cancel Pro anytime?
Yes. Cancel anytime through Stripe — no contracts, no calls, no email gymnastics. Your access continues through the end of the billing period.
How does the referral program work?
Refer a friend who pays for any tier and one free month gets credited to your account. Refer twelve, get a free year. Refer twenty-four, get two. No expiration. No cap. Your unique link lives in your account page after signup.
No signup required to explore.